Estimating polling accuracy in multiparty elections using surveybias
Abstract. Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure
of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opinion
Quarterly 69: 342–369) propose such a measure A for the
two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22:
31–44) demonstrate how measures A′i,
B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case
can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias,
surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast
computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion
surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology
applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population
is known (for example, through census data).
View all articles by these authors:
Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans
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surveybias, surveybiasi, surveybiasseries, multinomial variables, surveys, survey bias
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